ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN SABAH

ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN SABAH
There is no doubt there is an electricity shortage in Sabah. Or else there won't be so many blackouts. So there is a need for electricity to meet current demand as well as for future growth and development.

How much electricity do we need? It depends on whether we want to have all out industrialization (more electricity is needed) or go for sustainabale development (less is needed). Let's look at these two scenarios using China and New Zealand as case studies.

CHINA
China has decided to go for all out industrialization. it is already "factory to the world" making every kind of product for every country in the world from low-end cheap commodity items to high-end high-tech items. It has a large population and hence large workforce. This means cheap labour. Labour is also cheap because it is relatively uneducated. The higher the education level of the workforce, the higher the wages and the higher the labout cost. But as its workforce gets more educated, wages will rise in tandem.

Electricity is China is being generated by a number of sources. Coal-fired power stations have been the mainstay. They are also a source of environmental pollution, spewing sulphur dioxide and carbon dioxide into the air. As this is not enough, China has also hydro-electricity and nuclear power plants (28 more are under contruction now in China; seven in Vietnam, which is also undergoing rapid economic development, by the way). The Three Gorges dam in China has received a lot of flak from environmentalists due to the environmental impact. The truth is, hydro-electricity on a large scale has huge environmental impact, mostly negative. After 70 years or so, dams silt up and become unuseable. The Hoover Dam on the Colorado River in the US is a case in point. Mini-hydro is a better solution from an environmental point of view. More on China energy outlook here.


NEW ZEALAND
New Zealand has opted for zero industrialization as a matter of policy. This is because it is has a small (but well-educated) population. It is far from major markets (its small population isn't much of a market) so it doesn't make much sense to manufacture anything for export due to its remote location in the South Pacific. New Zealand practises sustainable development. No industrialization means it focuses on the service industry as a source of income. Tourism and education are the mainstays. New Zealand maintains it natural environment and this is what attracts the tourists to New Zealand, not Disneyland-like theme parks, not casinos. White-water rafting, trout fishing, geysers. A worldclass education system means it attracts foreign students to its universities.

Not opting for industrialization means New Zealand's energy needs are less. It is fortunate enough to have geo-thermal energy. More about New Zealand energy outlook here.

SABAH ENERGY
To me, Sabah is closer to the New Zealand model than the China model. this means we should take pointers from what New Zealand has done.

The coal-fired power plant in Sabah will be built, despite what the BN government says. This is because when they announced that they will not build it, they did not give an alternative as to how they are going to get the electricity to meet the demand. They are saying that they are not going to build it just to please the voters and also because they are under pressure from environmentalists worldwide. After the elections, they will revive the issue and build it. Also, sources have revealed that Musa Aman has already tied up the contract to supply the coal for the plant for the next 20 years. This contract is worth hundreds of millions. He's not likely to give it up just like that.

So what are the alternative sources of electricity for Sabah, if not the coal-powered power plant?

• Hydro-electricity from Bakun
Building power transmission lines from Bakun wlll also have an environmental impact
• Sabah gas
Building gas pipe lines wlll also have an environmental impact
• Sarawak gas
Building gas pipe lines wlll also have an environmental impact. In fact, plans are already afoot to build a gas pipeline from the Baram River delta to Kimanis in Sabah

Which of these alternatives are economically viable? Which has the least environmental impact? Remember, gas is a fossil fuel and not sustainable in the long term. Bakun will only last 70 years.

Are we willing to invest in photo-voltaic panels to harvest energy from the sun? Is wind energy viable? How about mini-hydro? Especially since we do not want to flood Tambatuon and make it into a dam.

Something to think about and come up with answers...

Copyright 2003-2011 Azlan Adnan. This blog post is sponsored by The Green Party of Malaysia

POLITICAL ECONOMY: The Road Ahead for Sabah

Illegal Immigrant Issue

I have done a little research to find out where are the possible areas in the Philippines and Indonesia that these illegal immigrants are coming from. Of course, southern Mindanao and the islands of Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Mapun and the seven Turtle Islands (of Boan, Lihiman, Langaan, Great Bakkungan, Taganak, Baguan and one nameless island) as well as Palawan and Balabac first come to mind.

As for Indonesia, besides Kalimantan, I suspect Natuna and Anambas and islands of the Riau archipelago.

I have posted links to write-ups of these places on my FB wall. Would appreciate some feedback in terms of evidence so that we get our facts right to use as ammunition for the next General Elections. Many thanks!

Together, we achieve more with less.

Democracy is government by the people, for the people.

Oligarchy is government by the few, for them and their cronies only.

If we choose democracy, then we must get it clear in our heads that people come in all shapes and sizes and also with every opinion under the sun. To have a one-size-fits-all policy that pleases everyone is impossible. To have a popular policy that pleases most of the people is also not the best solution. This is because, by their nature, popular policies are short-term and well, frankly, simply vote-buying tactics.


Sustainable Development

What voters and politicians both need to understand is that we need sustainable policies for the long-term, not just with five-year horizons. Just as we do not inherit this Earth from our ancestors but borrow it from our grandchildren, we have to make difficult, even painful, choices for the sake of our sons, daughters and their grandchildren.

Saying "No!" to a coal-fired power plant is one such choice. The price to pay is perhaps power blackouts in the short-term, like what SESB and TNB are saying. It may mean less industrial development and less blue-collar jobs.


The Road Ahead and Way Forward

What we need to do is have a different economic model, one not based on industry but on agriculture and eco-tourism, just like New Zealand. With a population similar to Sabah, long distance from global markets, New Zealand made the choice to not industrialize but to turn its pristine natural beauty into its economic assets. No tourist coming back from New Zealand is not impressed. Everyone has enjoyed a good beef steak or lamb chop from NZ farms (the non-vegetarians among us, that is).

By contrast, why is the local beef or kerbau farming industry so far behind by comparison to New Zealand? I personally find kerbau meat tastier and more tender than beef. Why are we not exploiting kerbau farming as a business activity?

We must focus on making these difficult choices in planning the road ahead. Oil and gas will not last forever. Protesting about petrol subsidy removal is really, when you look at the big picture, just a small side issue.


Questions to Which We Must Find Solutions

What we really need to focus on are issues like:

• How best to develop eco-tourism in Sabah?
• How best to maintain security in Sabah so that we don't get Abu Sayyaf terrorists kidnapping people from island resorts like Sipadan, Mabul and the Turtle Islands Marine Park?
• How best to ensure food security in Sabah?
• Sugar prices are high. Can we grow sugarcane in Sabah? Why not?
• Why is there no agricultural college in Sabah?
• Why are we not commercializing our unique agricultural products like beras wangi, beras hitam, beras merah, toohau, latuk, pisang tembaga, durian merah, Babagon pineapples?
• Why is there no scientific research or agricultural promotion to protect these biodiversity and grow them on a wider scale?
• Are we conducting sustainable fishery or just marine harvesting?
• What are we doing about dynamite fishing?
• Why are we allowing state agencies like SESB destroy our marine parks?
• What sustainable power-generating technologies can we implement now? Mini-hydro? in the medium term? in the long term?

I am sure you would be pleased to add your own to this growing list of questions...

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