ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN SABAH

There is no doubt there is an electricity shortage in Sabah. Or else there won't be so many blackouts. So there is a need for electricity to meet current demand as well as for future growth and development.

How much electricity do we need? It depends on whether we want to have all out industrialization (more electricity is needed) or go for sustainabale development (less is needed). Let's look at these two scenarios using China and New Zealand as case studies.

CHINA
China has decided to go for all out industrialization. it is already "factory to the world" making every kind of product for every country in the world from low-end cheap commodity items to high-end high-tech items. It has a large population and hence large workforce. This means cheap labour. Labour is also cheap because it is relatively uneducated. The higher the education level of the workforce, the higher the wages and the higher the labout cost. But as its workforce gets more educated, wages will rise in tandem.

Electricity is China is being generated by a number of sources. Coal-fired power stations have been the mainstay. They are also a source of environmental pollution, spewing sulphur dioxide and carbon dioxide into the air. As this is not enough, China has also hydro-electricity and nuclear power plants (28 more are under contruction now in China; seven in Vietnam, which is also undergoing rapid economic development, by the way). The Three Gorges dam in China has received a lot of flak from environmentalists due to the environmental impact. The truth is, hydro-electricity on a large scale has huge environmental impact, mostly negative. After 70 years or so, dams silt up and become unuseable. The Hoover Dam on the Colorado River in the US is a case in point. Mini-hydro is a better solution from an environmental point of view. More on China energy outlook here.

NEW ZEALAND
New Zealand has opted for zero industrialization as a matter of policy. This is because it is has a small (but well-educated) population. It is far from major markets (its small population isn't much of a market) so it doesn't make much sense to manufacture anything for export due to its remote location in the South Pacific. New Zealand practises sustainable development. No industrialization means it focuses on the service industry as a source of income. Tourism and education are the mainstays. New Zealand maintains it natural environment and this is what attracts the tourists to New Zealand, not Disneyland-like theme parks, not casinos. White-water rafting, trout fishing, geysers. A worldclass education system means it attracts foreign students to its universities.

Not opting for industrialization means New Zealand's energy needs are less. It is fortunate enough to have geo-thermal energy. More about New Zealand energy outlook here.

SABAH ENERGY
To me, Sabah is closer to the New Zealand model than the China model. This means we should take pointers from what New Zealand has done.

The coal-fired power plant in Sabah will be built, despite what the BN government says. This is because when they announced that they would not build it, they did not give an alternative as to how they are going to get the electricity to meet the demand. They are saying that they are not going to build it just to please the voters and also because they are under pressure from environmentalists worldwide. After the elections, they will revive the issue and build it. Also, sources have revealed that Musa Aman has already tied up the contract to transport the coal for the plant for the next 20 years. This contract is worth hundreds of millions. He's not likely to give it up just like that.

So what are the alternative sources of electricity for Sabah, if not the coal-powered power plant?

• Hydro-electricity from Bakun
Building power transmission lines from Bakun wlll also have an environmental impact
• Sabah gas
Building gas pipe lines wlll also have an environmental impact
• Sarawak gas
Building gas pipe lines wlll also have an environmental impact. In fact, plans are already afoot to build a gas pipeline from the Baram River delta to Kimanis in Sabah

Which of these alternatives are economically viable? Which has the least environmental impact? Remember, gas is a fossil fuel and not sustainable in the long term. Bakun will only last 70 years.
Instead of importing coal for a coal-fired power plant, what's hindering Sabah from having a gas-fired power plant utilizing Sabah's own gas resources? Initially, I had wrongly assumed that the gas pipeline from Bintulu to Kimanis was to bring gas from the Baram River delta to Sabah to generate electricity for Sabah. Instead, it sends Sabah gas to Bintulu. Why is this necessary, when its Sabah that needs the energy?
Are we willing to invest in photo-voltaic panels to harvest energy from the sun? Is wind energy viable? How about mini-hydro? Especially since we do not want to flood Tambatuon and make it into a dam.

Something to think about and come up with answers...

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